Logistic (S-curve) fitbest fit (AICc)N(t) = L / (1 + e^{−k(t − t₀)})
carrying capacity L 19Ksteepness k 0.798 / yrmidpoint t₀ 2022R² 0.9927forecast 18K by 2027
Forecast = 10% of the 11-yr record (1.1 yr ahead). Anchored on the latest value; levels off toward L ≈ 19K.
Timeline — what shaped the curve
12016-03-15FAIR Principles paper — Wilkinson et al. published 'The FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management and stewardship' in Scientific Data, coining the FAIR acronym and seeding the citation curve.
22016-09-05G20 Hangzhou endorses FAIR — The G20 Leaders' Communiqué from the Hangzhou Summit endorsed open science and access to publicly funded research on FAIR principles, lending the framework high-level political backing.
32018-09-04Plan S / cOAlition S — National funders, backed by the European Commission and ERC, launched cOAlition S and Plan S to mandate immediate open access, amplifying funder-driven demand for FAIR data practices.
42021-04-28Horizon Europe FAIR DMP — Regulation (EU) 2021/695 established Horizon Europe (2021-2027), making FAIR-compliant data management and a Data Management Plan a non-optional requirement for all funded projects.
52023-01-25NIH DMS Policy — The NIH Data Management and Sharing Policy took effect, requiring DMS plans and deposit in trusted, FAIR-aligned repositories for all new NIH-funded research generating scientific data.
Cumulative citations of the FAIR Guiding Principles paper — the best single FAIR-adoption proxy.