Omics & specialized archives

SARS-CoV-2 sequences

NCBI Virus

9.2M

records · 2026-07-20

Gompertz

best-fit model

9.3M

projected 2027

Forecast

Gompertz (S-curve) fitbest fit (AICc)N(t) = L·e^{−e^{−k(t − t₀)}}

carrying capacity L 9.4Msteepness k 0.940 / yrinflection t₀ 2022R² 0.9873forecast 9.3M by 2027

Forecast = 10% of the 6-yr record (0.8 yr ahead). Anchored on the latest value; levels off toward L ≈ 9.4M.

Timeline — what shaped the curve

12020-01-11First genome shared — The first SARS-CoV-2 genome was publicly released on Virological.org on 11 January 2020, enabling worldwide diagnostics, vaccine design, and the sequencing surge that follows.
22020-03-11WHO declares pandemic — On 11 March 2020 the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, triggering global surveillance programs that drove the steep early ramp in genome submissions.
32020-12-08First vaccine rollout — The UK began the world's first authorized COVID-19 vaccinations (Pfizer-BioNTech) on 8 December 2020, intensifying variant surveillance to monitor vaccine escape.
42021-05-11Delta VOC named — The WHO classified the Delta lineage (B.1.617.2) as a variant of concern on 11 May 2021, fueling the mid-2021 sequencing wave as the more transmissible strain spread globally.
52021-11-26Omicron VOC named — The WHO designated Omicron (B.1.1.529) a variant of concern on 26 November 2021, prompting a massive spike in sequencing as the heavily mutated variant swept the world.

How this is tracked

SourceNCBI Virus

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Historical sources

All data points (9)

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