SeqDesk estimate · Berkeley Genomics, UK Biobank, gnomAD, Stephens 2015
2.0M
genomes (WGS) · 2025-01-01
Timeline — what shaped the curve
12001-02-12HGP draft genome — The Human Genome Project published the first working draft of the human genome, announced February 12, 2001 in Nature and Science.
22003-04-14HGP complete — The Human Genome Project declared the essentially complete reference human genome finished on April 14, 2003, two years ahead of schedule.
32012-111000 Genomes — The 1000 Genomes Project published an integrated map from 1,092 human genomes, vastly expanding the catalog of human genetic variation across populations.
42018-12-05100k Genomes UK — Genomics England reached its goal of sequencing 100,000 whole genomes from NHS patients, marking the first national-scale clinical genomics program.
52022-03-31T2T-CHM13 — The Telomere-to-Telomere Consortium published the first truly complete, gapless human genome (T2T-CHM13), adding ~200 million bases over the prior reference.
62023-11-30UK Biobank 500k — UK Biobank released whole-genome sequences for all 500,000 participants, then the world's largest single set of human sequencing data.
SeqDesk-curated LOWER BOUND of cumulative human whole-genome (WGS, ~30x) sequencing worldwide: about 2 million by 2025 (Berkeley Genomics, deliberately conservative); the true figure is likely 2-5 million by 2026 and ultimately unknowable because most clinical/biobank genomes never reach public archives. WGS only — excludes millions of exomes (WES) and ~50M consumer SNP arrays (not sequencing). Component cohorts (UK Biobank ~491k, All of Us ~415k, gnomAD, Genomics England 100k) must NOT be summed (severe double-counting). Context: Stephens et al. 2015 projected 100M-2B human genomes by 2025 and Birney 2017 projected >60M clinical genomes — both overshot the realized ~2M by 50-1000x, a caution against straight-line extrapolation of any curve on this page.
How this is tracked
SourceSeqDesk estimate · Berkeley Genomics, UK Biobank, gnomAD, Stephens 2015